The process is the same, week after week. On Tuesdays after the podcast, we do the TV show. After the TV show, we meet to discuss what we are doing for the TV show on Wednesday. After the meeting, I retreat to my office to continue any research I didn’t get done on Monday night, do my rankings for that week’s games and write the intro to the Love/Hate column. Then, on Wednesday, after the podcast, TV show and postshow meeting about Thursday’s TV show, I start writing the rest of the column.
That’s the schedule, week after week. Except this week.
This week — Thursday, to be exact — my daughters turn 7 years old. And as the podcast listeners know, their present this year is that we are taking them to Disney World.
I am, as you know, a #companyman, but truly, I love Disney World. And the only thing better than going there is going there with your kids and seeing it through their eyes. The girls always ask to go back and they always ask to go for their birthday, but we’ve never gone in the fall before because of my schedule. Until this year.
Going there means I would have to miss a couple of podcasts. It means I would miss an episode of The Fantasy Show on ESPN+, and it means I would have to write my column in even less time. A non-starter.
Except, you know, after last year’s health scare, I’m trying to change my approach a little.
As I discussed it with my wife, I thought … you know, five years from now I’m not gonna remember two podcasts or an episode of the show in Week 8 of the 2018 fantasy football season. But I will remember my daughters getting to spend their birthday at The Happiest Place on Earth.
So I decided to ask, and my bosses here couldn’t have been better about it.
“Of course. It’s a no-brainer. Enjoy!” they said.
My bosses are trying very hard to save me from myself and my schedule. Mike Clay graciously agreed to step in for me on the podcast this Thursday and Friday. Field Yates graciously agreed to fill in for me on The Fantasy Show on ESPN+. And I … well, I am not doing a big intro this week. It is what it is.
Because I go into withdrawal if I completely stop working, if you are in Orlando this week, I will be at the ESPN Club on the BoardWalk at Disney at 7 p.m. on Friday, doing a Q&A for Week 8, so stop by and say hi. And I’ll be back on Sunday for Fantasy Football Now.
But for now, while you read this, I’m most likely hanging with Anna and Elsa or checking out the new Avatar ride at Animal Kingdom. Thanks as always to Kyle Soppe and Damian Dabrowski for their help at various points in this column.
A reminder: Love/Hate this year is about our ESPN projections. A “love” means I think the player meets or exceeds his projection, a “hate” means I think he falls short. Unless otherwise noted, all stats are for the past four weeks. Let’s get to it:
Quarterbacks I love in Week 8
Ben Roethlisberger vs. Browns (ESPN projection: 18.0 points): Off a bye and with two weeks to prepare for a home game against a Browns team that has played four overtime games in seven weeks, Ben should have a big week against a defense that is giving up 316 passing yards a game. Only once in his past seven home games against Cleveland has Big Ben failed to reach 17 points. I’ll take the over on 18 for him Sunday.
Andrew Luck at Raiders (ESPN projection: 20.5): Luck is tied for the league lead with 329 dropbacks. Oakland allows a league-high 8.42 yards per dropback (and it’s not all that close, as it’s a quarter-yard more than any other defense). In fact, the Raiders allow a touchdown pass on 7.1 percent of pass attempts (second-highest rate). That’s important because Luck leads the NFL with 311 pass attempts. He might throw less because Marlon Mack has given them a running game, but he’s not throwing that much less.
Jameis Winston at Bengals (ESPN projection: 19.1): In seven games, the Bengals have allowed six QBs to score at least 17.5 points, five to throw for more than 315 yards and five to throw at least two TD passes against them. In 10 quarters (and one overtime), Winston has amassed 905 passing yards. To put that in perspective, if you extend that to a full season (64 quarters) you’re looking at 5,792 passing yards. By the way, the NFL single-season record is 5,477.
Mitchell Trubisky vs. Jets (ESPN projection: 18.6): Mahomes, Shmahomes … As great as young Patrick is, there’s not a hotter QB in fantasy right now than Trubisky. Since Week 4, he is averaging more than 34 fantasy points per game and ranks second with 11 TD passes in that span (despite being on bye one of those weeks). In fact, he has the most points in a three-game span by any QB since 2012 (Cam Newton). He actually has more rushing yards this season than LeSean McCoy and now gets a Jets team that is giving up almost 290 passing yards per game on the road and has allowed multiple TD passes in four straight. Somehow, he’s still not 100 percent rostered.
Others receiving votes: Traditionally, Russell Wilson is a slow starter, but he has never been lower than QB10 from Week 6 through the end of the season in any of the past three years. He’s still not running, which is concerning, but off the bye and facing a Lions team that has allowed every QB but Tom Brady (in that weird game where Detroit had the ball for 39:15) to throw multiple touchdown passes, I like him as a high-end QB2 this week. … If I’m on Roethlisberger (and I am), then it stands to reason Baker Mayfield will have to chuck it to keep up with the Steelers. Pittsburgh is definitely playing better on defense recently, but still, since 2017, Pittsburgh has allowed the eighth-most points to QBs in games at home. … If you need a bye week fill-in and Trubisky and Andy Dalton are not available, consider Joe Flacco. Very quietly, he has more than 275 passing yards in five of his past six, is averaging a career-high 43.3 pass attempts per game and gets a Panthers defense that has given up multiple TD passes in five straight games.
Quarterbacks I hate in Week 8
Cam Newton vs. Ravens (ESPN projection: 17.5): Not surprisingly, the Ravens blitz at the second-highest rate in the NFL (37.2 percent). Against the blitz, Newton has struggled, as he’s 30th in yards per dropback when blitzed (behind, among others, Marcus Mariota). The Ravens also have a top-10 red zone defense. Newton’s rushing keeps the floor decent, but in a tough matchup in what Vegas expects to be a low-scoring game, I have him outside my top 10 and falling short of 17.5 points.
Matthew Stafford vs. Seahawks (ESPN projection: 17.7): OK, I know Seattle’s defense isn’t what it used to be, but it is better than you might think. True, the Seahawks haven’t exactly faced a Murderers’ Row of QBs and teams have been able to run against them, limiting the need for passing (they’ve faced the fewest pass attempts this season), but still. Whatever the reason, they are fourth in pass defense and one of only two defenses with more interceptions than passing TDs allowed. Stafford’s passing volume has also decreased with the recent emergence of Kerryon Johnson, as he’s averaging just 24 pass attempts over his past two games. I think Seattle goes more balanced in a lower-scoring-than-expected game, keeping Stafford under 17.7 (a number he has hit just twice in six games).
Running backs I love in Week 8
James White at Bills (ESPN projection: 18.6): The sixth-best running back in fantasy so far, White should get his heaviest workload on Monday Night Football, since, as of this writing, I don’t expect Sony Michel to play. Facing a Bills team that allows the ninth-highest completion percentage to opposing running backs, White should see the ball early and often, especially in the red zone, where half of Tom Brady’s touchdowns this season have gone to running backs.
Chris Carson at Lions (ESPN projection: 13.7): It’s a great matchup against a Lions team that is allowing a league-high 5.32 yards per carry. Not for nothing, but Carson averaged 5.3 yards per carry in his past two games. While I expect the Seahawks to open up the passing game some (hence Wilson being in “others receiving votes”), they still lead the league in rush percentage and they’ll continue working that against a Lions team that is bottom three in terms of yards allowed per carry before and after first contact.
Adrian Peterson at Giants (ESPN projection: 13.2): What he’s doing is nothing short of a miracle given how hurt he is. Just inhuman. It’s very strange to see, but Washington wants to run the ball and play good defense. With at least 17 carries and 97 rushing yards in three of his past four games, expect another heavy dose of Peterson and a touchdown against a Giants team that gives up the 10th-most red zone drives per game.
Phillip Lindsay at Chiefs (ESPN projection: 11.9): The Chiefs are giving up the third-most yards per carry, which is great news for Lindsay, who is averaging 5.8 yards per rush and has seen more than 17 percent of his carries go for 10-plus yards. With Royce Freeman banged up, the Broncos can either give it to Lindsay or let Case Keenum throw it. What will they choose? Exactly.
Marlon Mack at Raiders (ESPN projection: 12.0): Don’t look now, but Indy has a line that can block and a running game. And Mack is a big-play threat, too. Since the start of last season, Mack leads the league in percentage of carries that have gained 20-plus yards (6.7 percent). After last week, expect another heavy dose of Mack against an Oakland team that, against running backs, has allowed the seventh-most big rushing plays (10-plus yards), the fifth-most rushing yards per game and the fifth-highest yards per carry.
Others receiving votes: I realize Doug Martin is the favorite to get early-down work, but I prefer Jalen Richard, both in this game and for the rest of the season. The Colts allow the second-most RB receptions per game (7.0) and Richard has four games with at least six catches, one of only four backs to do that (Christian McCaffrey, Saquon Barkley, James White). … I don’t know the status of Matt Breida as I write this, but whoever gets the start for the Niners — Breida or, if he’s out, Raheem Mostert — should find success against a Cardinals team that has allowed a RB to run for at least 90 yards and rush for a TD four times in just seven games. … One of these weeks, Mike McCarthy is going to realize what he has in Aaron Jones. And out of the bye, against a Rams team that gives up the seventh-most yards per carry (4.74) and the second-most YPC after first contact, this is as good a week as any. In a bye-filled week, Jones’ upside is worth the flex gamble. … I realize I love James White, but my expectation is the Patriots get up big on Buffalo and let Kenjon Barner get a bunch of carries in the second half to get more reps with the Pats’ offense.
Running backs I hate in Week 8
LeSean McCoy vs. Patriots (ESPN projection: 14.6): The Patriots have allowed just three rushing TDs (tied for third fewest), and I can’t imagine Bill Belichick is all that worried about Derek Anderson. He’s going to load the box and take his chances with Anderson beating him. Only the Cardinals have fewer red zone drives than the Bills (just 13 in seven games), and that’s unlikely to change Monday night.
Mark Ingram at Vikings (ESPN projection: 12.9): Averaging just 3.04 yards per carry, you’re banking on a touchdown here against the third-most efficient red zone defense this season. Todd Gurley II is the only player to rush for 60-plus yards against the Vikings. Mark Ingram is not Todd Gurley. #analysis
Carlos Hyde and T.J. Yeldon vs. Eagles in London (ESPN projection: Hyde 9.6, Yeldon: 11.8): We don’t know how the Jaguars will split up carries this week, but what we do know is Saquon Barkley is the only player to rush for 50-plus yards against the Eagles this season. In fact, two of the top three rushing performances versus Philly came from QBs (49 yards for Cam Newton and 46 for Marcus Mariota). The Eagles own the fourth-most efficient red zone defense as well. I’m taking the under on the combined total here of 21.4.
Doug Martin vs. Colts (ESPN projection: 10.9): Among the reasons I like Richard is why I don’t like Martin. The Colts are quietly top 12 in yards per carry both before and after first contact. The way to move the ball with running backs against the Colts is through the air, not between the tackles. I also just don’t think Martin has anything left. I may be proved wrong, but I’m happy to have him on my bench until we know for sure.
Pass-catchers I love in Week 8
Jarvis Landry at Steelers (ESPN projection: 15.7): Landry leads the NFL with a 54.5 percent red zone target share, and off a 10-catch performance last week, he should do more damage against a Steelers team that coughs up the second-most slot completions per game (11.8).
Emmanuel Sanders at Chiefs (ESPN projection: 15.2): Coming off of back-to-back games with a line of at least 6-100-1 (the first time he has done that in his career), Sanders should keep the good fantasy times going against a Chiefs defense that is being passed on at the third-highest rate this season. Ten pass-catchers (WRs/TEs) have scored more than 13 fantasy points when facing Kansas City. Given how hot Sanders has been, I’m taking the over on 15.2.
Tyler Boyd vs. Buccaneers (ESPN projection: 13.4): Yeah, he was on this list last week and laid an egg. That’s what I get for trusting Andy Dalton in prime time. But I’m back on Boyd, which sounds like a weird ’70s song, against a Tampa team that has given up the most receiving yards (933) and TDs (10) to the slot and is the worst in the NFL in passing yards, passing touchdowns, red zone efficiency and completion percentage against. In an era of recency bias, don’t forget that from Weeks 2 to 6, Boyd was the fifth-best WR in fantasy.
David Njoku at Steelers (ESPN projection: 10.4): During Baker Mayfield’s four-game stretch as a starting QB, Njoku has more than 10 points in every single one of them, is a top-five fantasy tight end and leads the team in receiving yards. The Steelers allow a league-high 7.7 tight end receptions per game.
Others receiving votes: It was a tough game last week, but I’m also back in on Taylor Gabriel against a Jets team that coughs up the third-most slot receptions per game (10.4). … With Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson out, expect Danny Amendola to celebrate Brocktober once again on Thursday night. With Brock Osweiler under center, Amendola has a 25.9 percent reception share and 22.7 percent target share (both team highs). He’s WR10 in total points in those two games. … Health has been an issue for Randall Cobb in recent years and this one, but in his three games played this season he has 27 targets and should be back for a high-scoring game against a Rams team allowing the eighth-most slot TDs on a per-game basis. … Someone has to catch the ball for Oakland, right? This week I say Jared Cook is one of them against a Colts team that gives up the fifth-most tight end receptions per game (6.0). Hopefully, Derek Carr is aware that opponents are completing 73.7 percent of passes when targeting tight ends versus Indy (seventh highest).
Pass-catchers I hate in Week 8
Golden Tate vs. Seahawks (ESPN projection: 15.5): Oh, he’ll be fine. But 15.5 strikes me as really high, especially considering he has just nine catches for 78 yards in his past two games combined. This week, he will face a Seahawks defense that ranks sixth in preventing slot completion percentage and third in preventing slot yardage. For three straight weeks, Tate has matched or set a season low in targets and you know from the Stafford write-up I think this is a more-balanced offense on Sunday.
Devin Funchess vs. Ravens (ESPN projection: 11.4): The Ravens have been shutting down opposing wideouts all season, as only one player has exceeded 70 receiving yards against them. And Funchess simply hasn’t been the big-play threat we expected. He’s averaging a career-low 12.9 yards per catch and doesn’t have a single reception of 30 yards or more. The projection is already low for him, so this is my way of saying I agree with it.
Evan Engram vs. Redskins (ESPN projection: 8.9): You probably don’t have better options and certainly, better days are ahead for Engram, but I don’t think it’s Sunday. The Redskins are allowing a league-low 5.93 yards per pass attempt when targeting the tight end, and he has never been a huge yardage guy. Engram has been held below 50 receiving yards in the majority of games for his career (11 of 19 games), so he’s going to need a score to beat this projection. However, Washington is allowing the sixth-fewest red zone drives per game. Traveling back home on a short week after missing a month, I’ll take the under here.
Kyle Rudolph vs. Saints (ESPN projection: 8.8): Another one where you’ll likely need a touchdown to pay it off, since the Saints allow the fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt to tight ends. Rudolph is currently 17th among tight ends in target share, and that lack of volume won’t help against New Orleans. O.J. Howard is the only tight end to have produced 30-plus yards against the Saints this season.
Matthew Berry, The Talented Mr. Roto, is standing in line for Space Mountain as you read this. He is the creator of RotoPass.com and one of the owners of the Fantasy Life app and FantasyLife.com.
Source:ESPN
